AGP Executive Report

Oman-India CEPA: India’s free trade pact with Oman kicked in on June 1, with experts saying it boosts energy security and gives Muscat a practical logistics and re-export role as Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep shaking Gulf supply chains. Maritime pressure on Iran: The US said it disabled the Botswana-flagged tanker Lexie with a Hellfire missile as it tried to reach Iran’s Kharg Island, adding to a blockade enforcement that has already hit multiple vessels and kept oil markets jumpy. Gulf flare-up: US Central Command reported Iranian missile and drone attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted or failed, while Iran’s IRGC claimed strikes on US Fifth Fleet assets—raising the risk of fresh shipping disruptions. ADNOC via Sohar: Asia’s naphtha prices fell to a three-month low as ADNOC resumed exports through Oman’s Sohar port, using ship-to-ship transfers to bypass higher Strait risk. Oman IPO watch: OMIFCO plans to sell a 25% stake in an IPO on Muscat Stock Exchange next month, positioning the fertiliser producer for higher global pricing despite the wider regional turmoil. Oman-Libya ties: OQ Group and Libya’s LIA signed an MoU to explore clean energy and strategic investment partnerships. Business & finance: MEBIS 2026 in Dubai is building momentum with 400+ senior bankers confirmed for September’s banking innovation summit.

Oman IPO Watch: Oman India Fertiliser Company (OMIFCO) plans to float 25% of its shares on the Muscat Stock Exchange, with subscription expected this month and listing in July, as the firm cites strong global fertiliser prices and resilience beyond Strait of Hormuz exposure. Clean Energy Manufacturing: Oman launched a $1bn lithium-ion battery anode materials plant in Sohar Free Zone, targeting up to 200,000 tonnes annual capacity and supporting EV and storage supply chains. Digital Sovereignty: The Ministry of Transport, Communications and IT launched “Sas for Excellence” to back Omani tech firms with local digital solutions, in partnership with key government and finance bodies. Agri & Food Security Diplomacy: Oman is showcasing food and marine products and investment opportunities at Belarus’s Belagro 2026, while Oman and Belarus also discussed deeper industrial cooperation in manufacturing and road construction equipment. Capital Markets: Muscat Stock Exchange is a strategic sponsor of the Oman Capital Market Conference 2026, focused on moving from resilience to growth and Oman’s emerging-market ambitions. Energy & Trade Connectivity: OQ Exploration and Production signed an MoU with Libya’s investment authority to explore joint oil and gas investments, reinforcing Oman’s cross-border energy ties. Maritime Risk Reminder: The UN shipping agency said it’s still too risky to move seafarers stuck in the Gulf until a more secure final agreement is in place.

Oman-India Trade Boost: India’s CEPA with Oman kicked in on June 1, with a $1.8m shipment launched as duty-free access expands for sectors like gems, jewellery, marine products, engineering goods and more—while Oman also signalled it can align petrochemical and fertiliser exports with Indian demand. Strait of Hormuz Pressure on Shipping: With the Strait still effectively constrained, the UN shipping chief said it’s too risky to move stranded seafarers, and reports say the US has covertly guided around 70 vessels via a lane near Oman while many ships switch off trackers. Energy Markets Watch: Oil prices swung as investors priced in possible reopening, but physical traffic remains far below pre-war levels. Oman-Libya Energy Ties: Oman and Libya deepened energy and investment cooperation, including an MoU between OQ Group and Libya’s investment authority. Consumer Safety Crackdown: Oman seized non-compliant tyres worth OMR13,000 in Al Dakhiliyah after label dates didn’t match manufacturing claims. Sohar Port Exports: Alara Resources dispatched multiple copper concentrate shipments from Sohar Port, underscoring ongoing mining exports. Regional Business Pulse: Bahrain’s bourse extended gains in May as trading activity surged.

Middle East Shipping Shock: Iran says it will suspend US peace talks and move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, while the US reports “self-defense” strikes on Iranian radar/drone sites after a drone shootdown; the flare-up is already pushing oil higher and leaving crews stranded, with the UN shipping agency warning thousands of seafarers still can’t be safely evacuated. Oman’s Diplomatic Role: Commentary highlights Oman’s quiet diplomacy and ongoing talks with Iran on Hormuz management, as Muscat seeks to keep trade routes open without taking sides. CEPA Boost for Trade: India–Oman CEPA comes into force June 1, with duty-free access for 99.38% of Indian export value and a first $1.8m shipment; officials frame it as a gateway for GCC, East Africa and beyond, even as Hormuz disruption raises logistics urgency. Oman Investment & Industry Finance: Oman Investment Authority expands its global portfolio into growth sectors, while Oman is shifting industrial project financing toward demand-led deals with guaranteed offtake to reduce investor uncertainty. Maritime Risk on the Water: A cargo ship off Iraq’s Umm Qasr was hit by a projectile, adding to a week of attacks and mine fears across the Gulf. Markets & Currency: Muscat Stock Exchange reforms and OIA activity support liquidity and emerging-market ambitions; the Omani riyal holds steady strength versus the Pakistani rupee.

Sovereign Investing: Oman Investment Authority widened its 2025 global bets, boosting the Future Generations Fund to about RO 8.57bn and adding new funds across private equity, venture capital, healthcare, logistics, infrastructure and advanced tech. Trade & Industry: India-Oman CEPA kicks in today, giving Indian exporters duty-free access to 98.08% of Oman’s tariff lines (99.38% of export value) and targeting a 50% goods export lift in three years, with benefits for engineering, pharma, agriculture/processed food, marine, textiles, chemicals and gems/jewellery. Shipping Risk & Hormuz: US-Iran talks stay fragile as Washington seeks tougher changes to the proposed ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, while US forces keep disabling blockade-runners and Iran maintains control measures, keeping energy and logistics uncertainty high. Renewables in Oman: O-Green plans a 58 MW wind pilot in Duqm to support industrial decarbonisation and its wider clean-energy pipeline. Labour Safety: Oman’s midday work ban for outdoor construction and open-air jobs starts June 1 to protect workers during extreme heat.

Strait of Hormuz Alert: Oman’s Maritime Security Centre warned of a floating object suspected to be a naval mine near the Strait of Hormuz, urging extreme caution and immediate reporting. Maritime Security Escalation: The US said it disabled a Gambia-flagged cargo ship (Lian Star) with a Hellfire missile after it ignored 20+ warnings while trying to breach the blockade toward Iran; NATO members are also moving forces closer to the area. Labour & Heat Safety: Oman’s Ministry of Labour announced a midday work ban for outdoor workers from June 1 (12:30pm–3:30pm) with fines for violations. Trade Boost (India-Oman CEPA): India-Oman CEPA starts June 1, bringing duty-free access for key Indian exports (including textiles and agriculture) and opening services and jobs; India also issued rules of origin for preferential tariffs. Duqm Talent & Industry: SEZAD and Sultan Qaboos University launch a two-week Duqm summer internship programme on June 7 for 18 students. Clean Energy in Duqm: O-Green plans a 58MW wind pilot in Duqm, feeding into a broader clean-energy and storage push. Mining & Business Growth: South Al Batinah issued 35 mining licences by end-2025, while South Al Sharqiyah recorded 451 new commercial registrations in Q1 2026. Regional Diplomacy: Sultan Haitham and France’s Macron discussed maritime security and cooperation.

Maritime Security: Oman’s Maritime Security Centre issued an alert after a floating object suspected to be a mine was spotted west of the Inshore Traffic Zone in the Strait of Hormuz, urging vessels and fishermen to keep a safe distance and report immediately. US-Iran Shipping Pressure: The US halted another Gambia-flagged bulk carrier, Lian Star, after repeated warnings; the ship was disabled by aircraft in the Gulf of Oman and remains adrift, as Washington continues blockade enforcement and says 115 vessels have been redirected since April 17. Hormuz Management Fight: Iran is pushing legislation to formalize its role in managing Hormuz passage, while US officials insist on conditions for reopening; Iran also says no final US deal is agreed yet. Oman Investment Push: Invest Oman and partners unveiled investment opportunities with guaranteed purchase/offtake agreements to improve bankability, alongside a $1bn lithium-ion battery anode materials project in Sohar Freezone. Markets & Growth: Muscat Stock Exchange rebounded, with the main index up 143 points weekly and market capitalisation rising by about RO 327m; financials led gains. Macro Watch: A WEF report warns global growth will slow and inflation may rise, with Hormuz disruptions cited as a key driver for energy and food prices.

Maritime Security in Focus: US and UK maritime authorities (UKMTO and USNAVCENT/NCAGS) issued fresh warnings to ships around the Strait of Hormuz, citing military activity north of Oman’s Musandam and urging extreme caution, continuous VHF watch, and coordination with US guidance—while warning non-compliance could be treated as a threat. Oman-Iran Diplomacy: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Oman’s Badr Albusaidi on regional security and the future management of the Strait, with both sides stressing stability under international law and sovereign responsibilities. US-Iran Ceasefire Deadlock: After a two-hour White House Situation Room meeting, Trump has not made a final decision on a 60-day ceasefire extension; Iran says no agreement is finalized and rejects “must” language, while the US reiterates red lines on nuclear limits and reopening Hormuz. Energy Trade Pressure: With Hormuz disruption still shaping oil flows, markets remain sensitive to any shift in shipping access and fees—keeping energy logistics and regional trade planning front and center for Oman-linked supply chains.

US-Iran Truce Update: The US and Iran have reportedly agreed a 60-day memorandum to extend the ceasefire and restart nuclear talks, but President Donald Trump has not yet given final approval, keeping the Strait of Hormuz reopening in limbo. Hormuz Shipping Stakes: Trump says the naval blockade will be lifted and demands “unrestricted” passage with no tolls and mine removal, while Iran’s negotiators stress they will judge by actions, not promises. Oman as Diplomatic Pivot: Iran’s foreign minister held a “very productive” call with Oman on Hormuz administration under international law, while US officials have warned Oman against any tolling role. Energy Market Pressure: With Hormuz disruption still feeding uncertainty, oil and fuel prices remain sensitive to every shift in talks, and shipping operators are navigating the risk with reroutes and “going dark” tactics. Oman Business Watch: South West Pinnacle Exploration signed a shareholders’ agreement for an Oman mining joint venture, adding governance clarity for Block 22B operations.

Oman Mining: Mazoon Copper Project earthworks are finished in Yanqul, Al Dhahirah, clearing the way for faster build-out toward a 2027 launch, with Strabag completing cut-and-fill, roads, ground improvement and slope works for the 20 sq km integrated copper-gold scheme. Strait of Hormuz Watch: Commercial traffic through Hormuz is up slightly, but still far below pre-war levels, as tankers including the Nissos Keros and Eagle Veracruz transit amid ongoing security concerns and war-risk insurance pressure. US-Iran Ceasefire Talks: A 60-day MoU to extend the ceasefire and restart nuclear talks is reportedly close, but still awaits President Trump’s final approval, with both sides trading accusations of truce violations after drone and missile incidents near Bandar Abbas and Kuwait. Hormuz Tolls Pressure on Oman: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent warned Oman over any tolling role, saying there are “no plans for tolling” after assurances from Muscat, while Washington also threatened further sanctions tied to Iran’s Strait Authority. Oil Markets: Saudi Arabia is expected to cut July crude OSPs to Asia as demand softens, even as Hormuz tensions keep Brent under pressure and premiums volatile.

US-Iran Truce Talks: The US and Iran have reportedly agreed a draft 60-day ceasefire extension and a path to nuclear negotiations, but it still needs President Donald Trump’s final approval, keeping markets jittery. Hormuz Pressure on Oman: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent directly warned Oman that Washington will “aggressively” target any party facilitating a Strait of Hormuz tolling system tied to Iran, after new sanctions hit Iran’s Strait Authority. Ceasefire Under Strain: Fresh US strikes near Bandar Abbas and Iran’s retaliatory actions—including an attack on a US base in Kuwait—have again raised fears the fragile truce could unravel. Energy Markets Watch: Oil and equities swung on deal headlines, while shipping activity through Hormuz appeared to slow as operators stayed cautious. Oman Business & Logistics: Oman’s food-security debate is shifting toward logistics—transport, cold storage and distribution—as a key driver of Dhofar fruit and vegetable prices. Mining Update: Mazoon Copper Project earthworks are progressing toward a 2027 launch, with major site preparation completed. Local Community: Al Seeb hosted a three-day Eid Al Adha festival featuring arts, sports and SME exhibitions.

Hormuz Shockwaves for Oman: US President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric in the US-Iran talks, warning Oman not to back any arrangement that would let Iran and Muscat jointly manage Strait of Hormuz shipping, saying “nobody’s going to control it” and threatening action if Oman “doesn’t behave.” White House Pushback: The White House dismissed an Iranian state-TV report of a draft MoU as “complete fabrication,” while Trump said the US is “not satisfied” with Iran’s proposals and warned it could “finish the job.” Fresh Strikes, Fragile Ceasefire: The US carried out new strikes near Bandar Abbas, including shooting down four one-way drones and hitting a ground control station; Iran retaliated by targeting a US airbase, as Kuwait reported intercepting missile and drone threats. Shipping and Energy Impact: Oil prices swung sharply—Brent fell on deal hopes, then jumped again after renewed attacks—while tankers and LNG flows showed signs of rerouting, with some vessels exiting Hormuz for India and China. Jobs and Incomes Risk: The ILO warned the wider Middle East crisis is increasingly hitting global labour markets through fuel, supply chains, aviation, tourism, and remittances.

Strait of Hormuz Deal Talks: Iran’s state TV says a draft US-Iran MoU would reopen commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, with Iran managing traffic in cooperation with Oman, while the US would lift its naval blockade and withdraw forces from Iran’s vicinity; the draft excludes military vessels and would be formalised via a UN Security Council resolution if finalised within 60 days. US Pushback: The White House immediately rejected the report as “complete fabrication,” saying negotiations are progressing but Washington is “not satisfied” with the terms yet. Oman in the Mix: Iran’s officials also say Oman is negotiating a new maritime transit framework for Hormuz, with procedures “completely different” from before the conflict. Maritime Risk Near Oman: A Greek-owned tanker reported an external explosion off Oman’s coast near the waterline; crew were safe and a small fuel leak was contained, underscoring security concerns around the Gulf approaches. Energy Transition Angle: A CCS expert argues the industry’s bottleneck is commercialization, not engineering—an issue relevant as Oman and the region weigh energy stability and emissions goals.

Maritime Shock Off Oman: A VLCC linked to Greek operator Olympic Shipping & Management was hit by an external explosion about 60 nautical miles east of Muscat; UKMTO says the crew is safe, but bunker fuel leaked and investigations are ongoing. Hormuz Tensions, Again: Iran and the US traded fresh accusations after US “self-defence” strikes on missile sites and mine-laying boats; Iran says it will retaliate and has started restoring internet after a long shutdown. Deal Talks Under Strain: Diplomats say a US-Iran ceasefire extension and asset-release terms are still the sticking point, with Rubio warning negotiations could take “a few days.” Oman’s Security Focus: Oman and India renewed a maritime security cooperation deal in Muscat to improve coordination and safer navigation. Trade Resilience Push: UAE officials at GLOBSEC Forum highlighted faster alternative corridors, including a Green Corridor with Oman, plus support for SMEs. Digital Shipping Moves: Qatar automated 14 new maritime e-services, from vessel transactions to seafarers’ paperwork.

Middle East Ceasefire Under Strain: Iran denounced fresh U.S. strikes as “bad faith” and a ceasefire violation, while the U.S. said it acted in “self-defense” against missile sites and mine-laying boats near the Strait of Hormuz. Digital Fallout: Iran began restoring internet access after a long shutdown, even as talks in Doha continued and Tehran warned of consequences. Maritime Disruption: A tanker off Oman reported an external explosion near the waterline; UKMTO said the crew was safe and urged caution, as shipping remains jittery around Hormuz. Oman-UAE Trade Boost: Oman-to-UAE cargo via Sharjah’s Khatmat Malaha crossing now runs without transit tariff fees under a new Logistics Corridor, cutting time and costs for perishable goods. Local Business Signal: SNF Oman announced a major $100m+ polymer investment in Salalah, with phase 2 ramping up later in 2026. Regional Politics: Gulf states split over Somaliland’s embassy move in Jerusalem, with Oman among those condemning it.

US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran, targeting missile sites and boats accused of laying mines near the Strait of Hormuz, even as diplomats push on in Qatar. CENTCOM said two Iranian boats were “eliminated” and a surface-to-air missile site near Bandar Abbas was hit, while officials stressed the ceasefire remains in place. Market Mood: Gulf stocks mostly rose on fading risk, but oil slid sharply as traders bet on a deal—then questioned how fast shipping and supplies can truly normalize. Hormuz Fees Fight: Iran again denied it will impose “tolls,” pointing instead to separate charges for navigation and environmental services via a mechanism with Oman. Oman Angle: Oman is repeatedly named in the navigation/fees framework as the region tries to keep trade moving without turning the strait into a paywall. Trade Flow Watch: LNG and crude tankers have started trickling out toward Pakistan and China, signaling cautious reopening—while the next flare-up risk is still very real.